Distinguish inference from obligation
Vermutung ist nicht Verpflichtung
Read contextual müssen and dürfte without treating a speaker’s inference as a verified fact or a command.
Das Team muss noch im Haus sein can be a strong inference from signs. Das Team muss den Eingang kontrollieren can state a duty. In this case dürfte angekommen sein expresses a reasoned guess about an earlier arrival, not permission. The perfect infinitive places the inferred event before the present assessment. A later confirmation changes the evidence available; it does not make the earlier guess retrospectively certain knowledge.
Aus den Hinweisen wird eine Schlussfolgerung gezogen.
A conclusion is drawn from the signs.
Das Modalverb drückt hier keine Verpflichtung aus.
The modal verb does not express an obligation here.
Die Lieferung dürfte inzwischen angekommen sein.
The delivery has probably arrived by now.
Die Vermutung wird erst durch eine Rückfrage bestätigt.
The guess is confirmed only through an enquiry.
Eine starke Schlussfolgerung kann sich als falsch erweisen.
A strong inference can turn out to be wrong.
Der Grad der Gewissheit hängt auch vom Kontext ab.
The degree of certainty also depends on context.
Das Team muss noch im Haus sein can be a strong inference from signs. Das Team muss den Eingang kontrollieren can state a duty. In this case dürfte angekommen sein expresses a reasoned guess about an earlier arrival, not permission. The perfect infinitive places the inferred event before the present assessment. A later confirmation changes the evidence available; it does not make the earlier guess retrospectively certain knowledge.
Read contextual müssen and dürfte without treating a speaker’s inference as a verified fact or a command.
Do not translate every muss as an order or every dürfte as permission. A strong inference can still be mistaken.
Check context and the infinitive construction. Inferred past event: muss/dürfte + Partizip II + haben/sein. Avoid assigning rigid numerical probabilities to individual modal words.
Write a 250–300-word German event handover. Separate the signs, the two contextual readings of muss, the tentative delivery report and the later confirmation; do not invent exact probabilities.